Looking at the numbers for the last 6 months I read what I believe is confirmation of my thinking that Growth Funds are the place to invest in a recovering market. They tend to recover first, and produce a higher return than other funds.
What I saw in the numbers was growth generally in all funds over the last 3 months, but the final performance was muted because of declines in the first 3 months of 2009. Except for Growth Funds which grew over both the first 3 months and the 2nd set of 3 months of 2009.
My conclusion is that Growth Funds tend to grow earlier and grow more than other funds in a recovering market. My second conclusion is that if Growth Funds are the first to recover, then indeed a general recovery is underway.
Summer is traditionally a period of negative numbers for investors. The recent swings in the markets display a sense of unease. Will this ummer be the traditional dog days, or will the depressed state of the market be a cause for this summer to be ‘happy days’?
The recent dip followed an announcement from the world bank that things were worse than it appeared. The markets dove in a scary fashion. Then the OECD said the economies were at the bottom, had levelled out, and implied good days ahead. The markets responded.
Obviously there is more economic confusion than economic projection.
In the absence of other advice, a conservative investor might go with tradition and assume dog days. An aggressive investor might go with happy days and invest accordingly.
We’ll know before the end of the year which path was the right one.